Overview and thoughts on “Solutions for a cultivated plant” by, Foley et al 2011
As the human population continues to grow exponentially, Foley et al. (2011) demonstrate current agricultural methods are failing. Through analyses of geospatial data models, the authors explain these failures and define the state of current global agriculture. They suggest four key strategies to increase global food availability by 100 to 180%.
The first strategy aims to stop expansion of agricultural lands, which currently occupy 38% of Earth’s land mass not permanently covered by ice. Of that land, 3.38 billion is pastureland and 1.53 billion acres is cropland. Agricultural land has increased by 3% between 1985 and 2005 mostly at the cost of tropical forests, resulting in a decrease of biodiversity and increasing greenhouse gasses, while contributing little to global food demands. The authors argue that agricultural expansion would disrupt essential environmental processes facilitated by sensitive ecosystems.
Despite the 3% increase in agricultural land from 1985 to 2005, the 20% increase in crop production during that period resulted from higher crop yields. These yields are thought to have resulted from fewer areas in fallow, fewer crop failures and mutli-cropping practices. Estimated crop production could increase by 28% or 58% if crop yields were 75% and 95%, respectively. However, with more production per acre, crops may require more nutrients.
The third suggestion the authors extend is resource efficiency. Fertilizers cost money to produce, purchase and apply; Overuse wastes resources, has potential to pollute water and harm marine life. However, appropriate use and accessibility could increase productivity. Irrigation management coupled with use of plants best suited for environmental conditions can reduce water usage would also increase crop production.
Finally, the authors present a provoking, but simple way increase crop production: Feed humans crops that are currently grown for livestock or other purposes. Such a shift could increase crop production by 49%. However, areas unsuitable for crops could benefit in terms of calories from pastoral livestock. As it stands, 35% of cropland is devoted to fodder. In other terms, about 75% of agricultural land is directly used for animals. Creating ways to reduce post-harvest crop losses, over 40% in developing countries, would also increase available food quantities. It is interesting to know consumers and retailers of industrialized countries can waste over 40% of post-harvest crop.
The paper mentions 1 in 7 are malnourished, but doesn’t define the food deficit in terms of kilocalories, nor does it suggest how much crop production should have increase between 1985 and 2005 to feed the population. Because the food deficit isn’t known the conclusion of, “[increasing] global food production by 100-180% [and] meeting projected demands (Foley et al. 2011),” becomes slightly ambiguous. Only two ways to increase crop production were assigned percentages; a maximum of 49% from livestock conversion and 58% from higher crop yields, which doesn’t add up to 180%. Consequently, the readers must assume the remaining 73% increase is from a combination of other strategies mentioned in the paper but without values.
Throughout the paper the authors emphasize sustainable agricultural practices. Simple practices to increase production like mulching to reduce water loss, adopting some organic practices and providing better access to better crops were touted. None of the ideas presented to sustainably increase food production are necessarily new, but the authors consolidate them and support them with compelling global analyses. They acknowledge all four strategies must be used in concert to achieve their claimed increase in crop production. It is likely more collaborative efforts and ideas will be necessitated from shortfalls in global crop production. With sustainability creeping into the academic world, it will be interesting to see if integrative sciences test permaculture’s merits. From the evidence presented by Foley et al 2011, organic, tree-hugging vegetarians may be ahead of the global food crisis curve.
Foley, J.A., Ramankutty, N., Brauman, K.A., Cassidy, E.S., Gerber, J.S., Johnston, M. Mueller, N.D., O’Connell, C., Ray, D.K., West, P.C., Balzer, C., Bennett, E.M., Carpenter, S.R., Hill, J., Monfreda, C., Polasky, S., Sheehan, J., Siebert, S., Tilman, D. & Zaks, D.P.M. (2011). Solutions for a cultivated planet. Nature 478: 337-342.
No comments:
Post a Comment